NFL Week 4 Picks

Still feeling out the NFL, so as always, feel free to fade…

Dolphins +7 at Patriots – Right now the Patriots are getting the benefit of the doubt. And that creates value. The Pats had to hang on to beat what looks to be a bad Texans team, got whooped by Jacksonville who just lost to old ass Eli, and then lost to an average at best Lions team. Yet, they are favored by 7 at home, meaning 4 points better on a neutral, over 3-0 Dolphins. No I dont think the Dolphins are as good as their 3-0 record but they’re playing good football and the Patriots are not. I’ll gladly take the point value in this one.

Bengals +6 at Falcons – At full strength, there’s not a whole lot of difference between the Bengals and the Falcons. I believe the Falcons are the better team but it‘s not by a lot. Now the Falcons have lost their two starting safeties including Keanu Neal, and linebacker Dion Jones. Missing this much in the middle creates a cluster of injuries that will affect the value in a point spread. I can see the Falcons being +3 for home field, but for anything over 4-points I like the Bengals.

Lions +3 at Cowboys – The Cowboys have no passing game and everyone knows it. They have Elliott in the backfield but are missing their starting center which has been an issue. The Cowboys defense has been solid but they are now minus their best defensive player and leader, linebacker Sean Lee. This line suggests that the two teams are even and I’m not buying that the one trick pony Cowboys minus their best defensive player are even with the Lions.

Bills +10 at Packers – The Bills were +17 last week at Minnesota so being 10-point underdogs at the Packers doesn’t seem so crazy in context. However, the Bills showed that the line last week was awful, winning outright by 21. The Bills were perceived last week as being the worst team in the league but that perception was unfounded. They’re still being treated as the worst team in the league as 10-point underdogs to a Green Bay team that had to fight for their life to come back at home against the Bears and lost by two touchdowns to the Skins.