Thursday Night Football Best Bet

Packers at Seahawks (2.5), 49.5

I don’t understand the line for Thursday Night Football.

Seattle has the most valuable home field advantage in the NFL, it’s at least a 4-point advantage and some would argue 4.5-points.

The Seahawks are a better team than the Packers.

According to DVOA team efficiency rankings, the Seahaws are 11th in offense, 10th in defense and 11th in special teams. That’s the defition of balanced.

The Packers aren’t far behind them ranking 8th in offense, 14th in defense and 24th in special teams. Overall the Packers are #10 in team DVOA with Seattle at #8.

So Seattle is a slightly better team, let’s call them a half a point better than the Packers. That puts this line at Seattle -4.5 to -5 points with home field advantage.

However, this is Thursday Night Football which has leaned heavily towards the home team.

Home teams are are covering at a 7-2 clip ATS so far this year.

The two teams who have not covered: Giants and Cardinals.

This line should be Seahawks -6, minimum, and yet, I see 2.5’s available.

The only reason for this is Aaron Rodgers. The public loves to bet on Rodgers.

However, Russell Wilson has outplayed Rodgers this season and I don’t see how Rodgers vs Wilson equals a 3.5-point adjustment.

Lock it in now: Seattle -2.5 points

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