Falcons -3 hosting Cowboys – LOSS
Cowboys away from home are a different team, meanwhile Atlanta at home is also a completely different team. On a neutral these teams may be even but at home Falcons should be able to cover this.
Steelers -4 at Jaguars – LOSS
This feels like a square play laying that many points on the road, but here’s why I’m taking it: Jax is just not a good team. When they get down, they cannot come back. The Steelers should be able to take a lead and run away with it.
Bears -2.5 hosting Vikings – WIN
The Bears are #5 in the NFL in overall DVOA, while the Vikings are 14th. The Bears have had a healthy Khalil Mack for just a few games this season, and tonight is one of them. The Bears also have QB Mr. Biscuit who ranks 4th in the NFL in QBR despite being in his second year and learning a brand new offense.
This line has the Bears as slightly worse than the Vikings, which seems right because that’s what the public perception is. The numbers say the Bears are a better team, and I’ll take the better team at home under the key number of 3 every time.