As of Monday, October 15
Hockey has lagged behind the other major sports in producing generally accepted advanced stats to help us evaluate teams. Corsi was the craze five years ago, but more recently the effectiveness of corsi has been debated. Scoring chances has shown a higher correlation in predicting team success, so for this purpose I’m going to rank teams based on SCF% or Scoring Chances For Percentage.
SCF%: Scoring Chances For Percentage; The percentage of all Scoring Chances that are taken by a team (SCF/(SCF + SCA))
Potentially there are undervalued teams in the market who should start to score more goals if they rank high in this stat but have been under-performing on the ice.
SCF% 5 v 5
SCF% All Ice Time
The most interesting team we see at the top of the all ice time ranks, and second in 5v5 SCF% is the 1-3 Arizona Coyotes. This is an obvious target for betting value in their next match up will will come tomorrow at Minnesota.
While the effectiveness of corsi has been debated as far as it being the best go-to stat for hockey, it’s still a valuable way to measure how a team is performing.
Corsi = Shot attempts FOR – Shot Attempts AGAINST
CF%: Corsi For Percentage; The percentage of all shots that are taken by a team (CF/(CF + CA))
Looking at the CF% we see Arizona at #2 in the NHL at 60.22 percent. Meanwhile, Minnesota is at just 42.06 percent, and ranks 27th on SCF% ranks for all ice time.
Arizona will have a nice plus-money line tomorrow and the upset should be a very real possibility.