Clemson and NC State will face off at noon eastern time to tip off the second round of the ACC tournament. Neither of these teams are ranked in the top 25 but both are ranked in the kenpom.com top 35 with Clemson at #28 and NC State at #32.
The line on this game opened at Clemson -1 and has been moved to Clemson -1.5 or -2 depending on your book. KenPom is projecting a 1-point Clemson win and this should be a competitve, coin-flip type of game, so I want no part of the spread.
However, the total is looking ripe for an under.
The total opened at 140 and has been bet up to 144.
Here’s what I’m seeing:
- Clemson is #2 in the ACC in defensive efficiency
- Clemson is #10 in the ACC in offensive efficiency
- NC State defense while ranking #10 in efficiency, rank #2 at turning over their opponents.
- Clemson is more than willing to give the ball up, ranking #12 in the ACC in turnovers on offense.
- NC State is 15th in the league in free throw rate
The last time these two teams played, NC State won by 2-points, 69-67, totalling 136 points. Both teams shot the ball well that night too, so it wasn’t due to poor shooting as Clemson hit 49-percent on FG attempts while NC State hit 44-percent. Clemson did not make a 3-pointer and NC made 9, but 3-point shooting is not part of Clemson’s game, ranking #253 in the country at 3-point percentage.
I am going against the steam here as 66% of the money is on the Over compared to just 51% of the tickets.
The Square Play: Under 144 – 1 unit – WIN