Championship Sunday Picks

mahomes at arrowhead stadium

I had a poor showing last weekend on the public dogs, I don’t call myself the square bettor just for fun.

But we’re on to Championship Sunday and it’s time to get back in the green. I feel much more confident in the NFC game between the Saints and Rams than I do for the epic AFC clash between Brady and Mahomes, so take that for what it’s worth.

Rams at Saints (-3, O/U 56.5)

Here is all you need to know about this game. Vegas set their lines for the potential Super Bowl showdowns and in both games the Saints were favored by 1.5 more points than the Rams would be.

 

Vegas sees the Saints as 1.5 points superior to the Rams on a neutral site. The Saints home field in a playoff game like this is worth 3.5 to 4 points.

This line is simply off. There was early Rams money when the line was 3.5 and after the Rams handled the Cowboys with ease, there is a lot of support for LA.

However, the Rams players confirmed that the knew what plays Dallas was running based on the alignment of their defensive line.

So, the reason CJ Anderson was running wild? You have it, confirmed by the Rams players themselves. If you know what’s coming, it’s a lot easier to have success.

The Saints had the #2 run defense in the NFL this year, they aren’t going to let that happen.

The Pick: Saints -3, 5 Units

Patriots at Chiefs (-3, O/U 56.5)

I have no idea what to make of this game.

The Patriots looked like a completely different team last week, marching up and down the field on a good defense.

That defense, however, was stuck in zone all game and the Pats simply carved it apart. I don’t know how you think you’re going to stop Brady with a zone, and I think at the very least the Chiefs should learn form the Chargers’ mistakes.

With that said, the Chiefs have the worst run defense in the league and the Patriots have no problem running the ball at will if it’s working. This is exactly what they did in the first matchup when they put up 40+ points despite running it more than they passed it.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs also had great success on the ground against the Patriots in that game. I don’t believe that the Patriots defense is going to be able to reliably shut down Mahomes and his weapons.

While this game sets up as a shootout, the fact that both teams should have a lot of success on the ground mean the possessions should be more limited.

A total of 56.5 points is pretty high, and I’d lean towards the under just due to the game script, but it’s hard to bet the under in a game like this. Early reports of 5-degree temps have changed to low 20’s, which may have little to no affect on scoring.

This game might be a good one to monitor in-game. If there’s an overreaction to any early movement that might be the time to jump in. Especially on whoever the underdog is at the time. I expect this to be a close game down to the wire.

The Pick: Chiefs -150, 2 Units

 

 

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