This was supposed to be an epic game between the upstart Niners, led by San Fran savior Jimmy G going up against The Great Aaron Rodgers and the always relevant Green Bay Packers.
Instead, Jimmy G is down with a torn ACL and Rodgers has been hobbled ever since injuring his knee week one against Chicago.
The Packers have struggled in losing to the Lions and Redskins in ugly fashion, and their only win other than the week one comeback vs the Bears came against the 32nd ranked team in DVOA, the Buffalo Bills.
Those early struggles, however, are leading to some potential betting value in tonight’s line which sits between -9 and -9.5.
While the Packers have played poorly at times, the 49ers have played poorly all the time and in all phases of the game. The Niners rank 21st in offensive DVOA, 30th in defense and 27th in special teams. The Packers meanwhile rank 7th in offensive DVOA, 17th in defense and 30 in special teams.
On a Monday night in Lambeau, the nominal 3 points for home field goes up to at least 4 points for Green Bay and possibly higher. The Niners may keep this game close for a while but I don’t see how they’ll be able to keep up with Green Bay’s offense over the course of four quarters.
This Packers team is still likely a top-10 unit, while San Francisco is a clear bottom-5 squad. The way those match ups have been priced so far this year would have Green Bay as at least a double digit favorite, so I’ll take the value at 9 or 9.5.
Pick Against the Spread: Green Bay -9