Coming off a 6-3 week we are at 25-12-2 overall, but instead of getting cocky it’s time to get more selective about what games to play and then attack them with conviction. As the season progresses and everyone gets more data, the lines should be much sharper which means finding value is more challenging.
Unfortunately one of the big values has already been hit hard, and that was Michigan who had been laying 7-points and has been been up to 10. The thing is, there may still be value at 10. It’s just really hard to fire when you’re getting the worst of the number. My hope is that enough money can come in on Saturday morning for the underdog to get this back under 10. At the current number I think it’s gotta be a pass, and hope Wisconsin gets on the board first and get the live number on Michigan.
These are my best bets for the college football slate this weekend.
Oregon +4 hosting Washington – Oregon keeps getting disrespected by Vegas despite having the number one pick in the draft at QB who leads a well-oiled offense, and a defense that hasn’t given up more than 24 other than a fluke fumble leading to an OT loss vs Stanford which was in the bag if they had just taken a knee. I’ll take the home dog, against a Washington team that hasn’t shown much on offense, and doesn’t look the same on defense after losing Vita Vea, their massive cog in the middle, to the NFL. – WIN
Georgia -7 at LSU – LSU is a fraud. Georgia’s athletes can go toe-to-toe with LSU and Georgia actually has an offense. With a cupcake schedule to this point, Kirby Smart has surely been holding something back for this first true test of the season. The Georgia players themselves have been calling this the opening game. This game should be a double digit win for Georgia. – LOSS
Northwestern -4 hosting Nebraska – This line dropped from 10, and for no reason on the field. There’s still no reason to believe that Nebraska is any good, and this Northwestern team won 10 games last year and has been competitve in every game this year, including giving Michigan a scare on the road. Northwestern should be able to win this game by double digits. – LOSS
The Square Bettor 