MLB picks are 9-2 so let’s start there
The game that catches my eye is the Cubs hosting the Pirates in a pitching match up between Jon Lester and Trevor Williams. Full disclosure, I am a Cubs fan so the fade radar should be going off loud and clear here. However, I think there is definite value on the home favorite Cubs.
This line is at just -156 Cubs and I do not think that is a enough juice in this situation. Motivation plays a huge factor in this handicap, and how could it not? This is basically a playoff game for the Cubs. They survived in extra innings last night in a huge walk off victory that broke a momentary tie for first place with the Brewers. The Cubs have the momentum and are back to half a game up in the standings. That half game goes away tonight with either a one game lead in the division, or a tie for first.
The other factor that I love here is the Lester factor. Lester shines in the postseason and this game, at Wrigley Field, should definitely have a playoff atmosphere for the Cubs.
Another reason I think there’s value on -156 is that Trevor Williams is not as good as his 3.04 ERA would lead you to believe. His FIP is 3.88, xFIP is 4.53 and his SIERA is 4.67. I’m expecting the luck to run out for Trevor tonight, and would take the Cubs up to -180.
Thursday Night Football: Rams (-6.5) host the Vikings
As a Bears fan, it was a pleasure to watch rookie Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills just embarrass Minnesota on their home field this past Sunday. The game was 27-0 at half and it could have been even worse.
My takeaway from that game was that the Vikings have been exposed. Their offensive line was horrendous and could not give Cousins any time to throw the ball, much less escape the pass rush or get out of the pocket. Enter the Rams and the best D-tackle in the league Aaron Donald.
After the Vikings were exposed on both offense and defense, I expect Rams HC Sean McVay, who some are calling the second best head coach in the league, to be all schemed up and ready for this Minnesota team. Give me the coaching advantage, and talent advantage on a short week. I think the Rams roll and I’ll lay the number as high as 7, but look out for the 6.5.