MLB Pick: Friday, August 24

att park san francisco

Trevor Cahill really let me down last night, but it wasn’t entirely his fault. His final line looked pretty bad, just 5 IP giving up 5 ER with only 2 K’s to 2 BB’s. If you felt like fading, last night was your night.

It was death by a thousand cuts as the Twins slapped out 8 hits against Cahill and just one extra base hit, a pinch hit two RBI double by Mitch Garver which turned out to be the game winner.

The Twins had a .400 BABIP against Cahill last night so while I take the blame for a bad pick, I’d love to see what would happen if they played that one over again.

Oh well, you can’t win them all. So let’s start a new streak.

Going into last night we were 3-0 on Best Bets and 4-0 overall, and we have another pick to play on tonight.

Tonight’s play is out on the San Francisco Bay where the Giants will play host to the Texas Rangers. The Rangers will throw out Drew Hutchison and the Giants starting pitcher is Pudge Rodriguez’s son, Dereck Rodriguez. Or more affectionately, D-Rod.

As with most of my picks, the key handicap here is the starting pitcher match up. Rodriguez comes into this game with a 2.25 ERA, though that is misleading. His FIP is still solid at 3.08 but his xFIP is up at 4.00 because he’s been able to suppress home runs at an unsustainable rate of 5.3% HR/FB.

Luckily for D-Rod he plays his home games, and tonight’s game, in a park that is 22nd in MLB for home runs allowed. Even if we assume a 4.00 ERA moving forward, that is still plenty good enough to get the job done.

The opposing pitcher in this match up, Drew Hutchison, does not instill the same kind of confidence. In 34.2 MLB innings this year Hutchison has struggled to do anything well. His 7.01 K/9 is below average, and his 5.45 BB/9 is among the worst mark for starting pitchers in the league. Despite a neutral .300 BABIP against, hitters are still banging out a .276 average against him, and combined with the walks his WHIP sits at 1.67 on the season.

FIP doesn’t even see his 5.72 ERA as legit, pegging him for a 6.12 moving forward. The bottom line here is that Drew Hutchison is a guy I want to bet against.

Moving on to the offenses, there’s not a lot to like on either side of the ball. San Francisco is not very good, and that shows especially vs RHP’s with a .298 wOBA and 88 wRC+. However, Texas is not much better with a .320 wOBA and 97 wRC+.

Playing at home with the far superior pitcher, I’m backing the Giants in this one. This is not a Best Bet given the Giants offense, but I do like the Giants tonight despite the extra juice.

The Pick: San Francisco Giants -150 vs Texas Rangers

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