MLB Bets: Saturday, August 18

petco park padres

The Cubs came through last night, barely. Hamels did his job going seven scoreless, but the Cubs could only put one on the board against Trevor Williams on a Kyle Schwarber home run. Luckily one was enough.

On today’s MLB slate there is not a lot to like, as everything seems priced appropriately. There are two bets though that I will be placing.

Tyler Glasnow has been dominant since coming over to the Rays in the Chris Archer trade. Yes, he is going up against the Boston Red Sox, at Fenway.

I don’t love this pick, but I do like the Rays run line.

If you’re feeling lucky: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (+105) at Boston Red Sox

My best bet of the day is Andrew Heaney of the LA Angels at the Texas Rangers who are starting Martin Perez.

This bet is all about the starting pitchers. Martin Perez is possilby the worst starting pitcher in MLB right now. His unsighly 6.71 ERA doesn’t look much better when you look at his FIP at 6.18. To be fair, his xFIP at 5.02 and SIERA at 5.08 show that Perez may not be quite as bad as he appears, but those two numbers are entirely related to his HR/9 at 2.03 and HR/FB at 21%.

League average for HR/FB is around 12% so it appears there’s going to be some regression to the mean in that number. However, Globe Life Park in Arlington Texas is third in MLB for home runs allowed this year, and is first for runs scored.

The Angels will be without Mike Trout, however Heaney is the reason I will be placing a wager on the Angels.

Heaney has been rock solid all year long. He pitches deep into games and has reliably prevented runs at an above average rate. His ERA at 3.88 is confirmed as completely legit by his 3.86 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, and 3.87 SIERA.

While a 3.88 ERA is only slightly above average, the reason to get excited about Heaney is his left-handedness. Texas trots out a lineup entirely of left-handed threats. Going down the list of OPS leaders for the Rangers, all are lefties until you get to Jurickson Profar. Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara all bat left-handed and represent the Rangers best four hitters.

The Play: Los Angeles Angels -110 at Texas Rangers.

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